CTAs End 2025 on a Positive Note

CTAs ended a rollercoaster year on a positive note, with the Barclay CTA Index, managed by BarclayHedge, showing a 1.25% rise in December for a provisional +3.16% on the year.

The final estimated return (85% of funds have reported results thus far) means the Index has overcome a first half struggle with five consecutive monthly gains. This makes for the sixth positive year in the past seven, with the exception being the -0.39% in 2023.

The Diversified Traders Index led the way in December at +1.71%, followed by Discretionary Traders at +1.45% – continuing the theme of the year, this was better than the Systematic Traders Index at +1.31%. Currency traders managed a positive December at +0.32%, but suffered in 2025 as a whole, one of only three sub-indices to end in the red, at -0.25%.

This was better than the worst-performer – the Cryptocurrency Traders Index, which largely mirrored the price of bitcoin by ending the year with a -4.12% performance in December for -12.32% on the year.

Perhaps one of the major stories of the year was the degree of outperformance by discretionary traders, for the whole year, the Barclay Discretionary Traders Index was +8.72%, comfortably the best performer, with the Systematic Index ended 2025 at +1.66%, and that after a strong run in to end the year. The MPI/Barclay Elite Systematic Traders Index rose 1.02% in December to recover its losses and end the year flat.

The BTOP50 Index, which seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposure was +1.2% in December, for an estimated year-to-date return of +3.22%.

Elsewhere, the SG Macro Index also reflected the superiority of discretionary funds in 2025. The headline index was +0.75% in December for +8.98% on the year, while within this, the Discretionary sub-index was +1.39% for +11.44% on the year, while the quantitative index was -0.22% for +4.77% on the year.